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An opportunity of a lifetime

An old market adage says that stock prices rarely go up in straight lines. And this has never been truer than for Flutter Entertainment. After a stellar year in 2020, the stock has struggled in 2021 and we thus thought it was a good time to update clients on what's been happening with the company and its outlook. We last wrote about Flutter in July 2020 as excitement was...

November in review

Global equity markets started November optimistically but were dominated by rising Covid-19 hospitalisations and concerns around the Omicron variant. Headlines delivered a sense of deja vu as some equity markets saw their biggest one-day fall since the prior year. The S&P 500, Euro STOXX 50 and FTSE 100 finished the month down by 0.7%, 4.3% and 2.2% respectively. A promising US labour market outweighed inflation concerns, although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported its highest reading in 31 years, and retail sales proved resilient. In the UK, positive economic momentum persisted with labour market data continuing to improve. Despite this economic trajectory, expectations for interest rate rises subsided since news of the Omicron variant. Yields on US, UK and German 10-year bonds decreased by 11, 23 and 24 basis points respectively. The pound was down 2.8% and 0.9% against the US dollar and the euro respectively.

Click below for the latest factsheets.

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

In the last few years, ESG funds have become mainstream; if you even begin to question the strategy, you will be seen not only as a contrarian but probably also as a heretic.

In his latest column for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth) points out that ESG must have a negative performance impact over time.

Credo publishes the "Greener Future" CredoNews

CredoNews #37

Hidden in plain view

Back in 2018, Cigna announced a bid for Express Scripts, changing the profile of the insurance business. Now roughly half of the combined entity comprises 'legacy' Cigna which is a United States based health insurer. The majority of Cigna's products are offered through employers. The other half of the business is...

October in review

After a poor start to the month, global equity markets gained some momentum through October and finished with healthy gains. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high and was up 7.0% over the month. The Euro STOXX 50 and the FTSE 100 were up 5.2% and 2.2% respectively. Energy prices reached record highs due to supply chain constraints around the world and increased consumer demand. This added to inflationary pressures, although US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, said this is still seen as a temporary result of the supply chain bottlenecks. In fixed income markets, the yields on US, UK and German 10-year bonds increased by 6, 1 and 9 basis points respectively. Brent crude oil increased by 8.0% due to rising global demand being met with tight supply as a result of the global lockdowns. The pound was up 1.5% against the US dollar and down 0.2% against the euro.

Click below for the latest factsheets.

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

Alibaba is a market-leading business with a fast growth trajectory in what will soon be the worlds's largest economy; the company's share price performance over the past year has however been disappointing.

In his latest column for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth) compares the volatility of Alibaba's share price with that of Amazon twenty years ago.

The UK Investor Visa Programme

The UK Investor Visa programme offers an attractive option for anyone looking to live, work or study in the United Kingdom. Ben Newton and Louise Usher chat through what the programme entails and Credo Wealth's experience in managing Investor Visa programme portfolios.

Citywire South Africa

Stock buybacks - what do they mean?

With all the focus on corporate actions, more attention needs to be paid to an often overlooked but important phenomenon: share buybacks. Credo's Alison Norbury, Equity Analyst, explores whether buybacks are important and what they potentially mean for equity investors.

Mixed signals

When a company generates profits, it then has a choice as to how to use the cash. Sometimes the company is able to re-deploy cash into organic growth opportunities, writing more insurance business, building a new factory or venue, purchasing new equipment or developing new products or technologies. On the other hand...

September in review

September was not a positive month for global equity markets and much of the quarter's prior gains were erased as several risks came to the surface, such as increasing inflation, supply disruption and concerns over peak economic growth. The S&P 500, the Euro STOXX 50 and the FTSE 100 were down 4.7%, 3.4% and 0.2% respectively. Central banks around the world delivered a hawkish shift with the Federal Reserve announcing it would start tapering asset purchases and the Bank of England suggesting it may put up interest rates, both before the end of the year. On the back of this narrative, the yields on US, UK and German 10-year bonds increased by 18, 31 and 18 basis points respectively. Brent crude oil increased by 10.2% due to rising global demand being met with tight supply as a result of the global lockdowns. The pound was down against the euro and the US dollar by 0.1% and 2.0% respectively.

Click below for the latest factsheets.

Credo Fireside Chat - Whispering Death with Michael Holding

Michael Holding, former West Indian cricketer and commentator, was the special guest in the latest Fireside Chat hosted by Credo Wealth.

Michael and Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo) had a wide-ranging discussion, focusing inter alia on Michael's latest book 'Why We Kneel, How We Rise' and how it addresses the issue of racism in life and sport.

Please note that any views expressed are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect Credo's views.

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

The last few weeks in the UK have been characterised by shortages on a number of fronts.

In his latest column for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth) shares some thoughts about his personal experience of the situation.

Citywire South Africa

Credo enhances Managed Portfolio Service with launch of ESG models

Credo is pleased to announce the launch of the Credo Multi-Asset ESG Portfolios (MAP ESG).

The MAP ESG portfolios will consist of four risk-rated models of low-cost Funds and ETFs, with ESG considerations. The portfolios are backed by long-term evidence, rather than current market trends, conditions or sentiment. They are based on rigorous research, intellectual honesty, and use long-term historical data to guide the decision-making process.

Credo Fireside Chat - The pursuit of truth in investing with Gerard O'Reilly

Gerard O'Reilly, Co-CEO and CIO of Dimensional Fund Advisors, was the special guest in the latest Fireside Chat hosted by Credo Wealth.

Gerard and Ainsley To (Head of Multi-Asset at Credo) had a wide ranging discussion, including noise in financial markets, interpreting historical data, the history of factor investing, choosing factors to implement, and the nuances in valuation metrics.

Please note that any views expressed are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect Credo's views.

Prudential

Oftentimes, bringing similar businesses together can result in measurable benefits such as greater scale, reduced costs or incremental revenue opportunities. The result is that the earnings and share price of the combined entity are higher than the individual parts. On the other hand...

eNCA

Deon Gouws featured on eNCA

CredoNews #

The UK announced updates to travel guidelines in the context of the Covid pandemic a week ago and South Africa remained on the "Red List". Deon Gouws, Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth, discussed this issue with television news channel eNCA.

August in review

Global equity markets continued their advance throughout August, as the S&P 500, the Euro STOXX 50 and the FTSE 100 were up 3.0%, 2.6% and 2.1% respectively, despite a surge in Covid Delta variant cases. There was also increasing evidence that immunity wanes over time, resulting in several countries announcing booster vaccine programmes. Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, re-iterated the Fed's dovish stance and view that the current increasing inflation is transitory. Despite the dovish tone from the Fed, the yield on US, UK and German 10-year bonds all increased by 9, 15 and 8 basis points respectively over the month. August was also a landmark month with regards to geo-politics, as it saw the formal removal of foreign troops from Afghanistan after two decades of conflict. The pound was down 0.6% against the euro and down 1.1% against the US dollar.

Click below for the latest factsheets.

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

As the world slowly returns to normal following the pandemic, some countries have successfully adopted a vaccine passport scheme in order to control entry to public venues in an effort to keep a lid on spreading the coronavirus.

In his latest column for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth) shares his experience of this on a recent driving holiday through France.

Credo Fireside Chat - The Art & Science of Fund Manager Research with Jeffrey Ptak

Jeff Ptak, Chief Ratings Officer at Morningstar, was the special guest in the latest Fireside Chat hosted by Credo Wealth.

Jeff and Ainsley To (Head of Multi-Asset at Credo) discussed trends in the mutual fund industry, the behavior gap and common pitfalls for fund investors, market efficiency within mutual funds, machine learning for fund ratings, and the nuances in manager research.

Please note that any views expressed are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect Credo's views.

An improved outlook for insurers

After multiple years of a "soft" pricing environment, Covid-19 has been the catalyst for a change in the insurance cycle. Over the last few quarters pricing has substantially improved, signalling the start of a somewhat "harder" market. As such, we believe that...

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

With so many strong opinions out there on Covid-19 vaccines, it's tempting to avoid the topic altogether to prevent contentious arguments and to keep the peace.

In this article for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws, Credo's Chief Investment Officer, discusses why his personal experiences with Covid have led him to question that approach.

Citywire South Africa

The growth in value, and the value in growth

In this report, Citywire SA interviews three separate global equity Value managers. Jarrod Cahn, portfolio manager of the Credo Global Equity Fund, shares his point of view on recent market developments.

Still a good bet

Over recent weeks, amidst a barrage of negative news flow, we have received several questions from investors about our thought process regarding our investment in Crown Resorts. Therefore, we thought that we would take the opportunity to set out our thinking. Firstly...

Credo Fireside Chat - Deconstructing Diversification with Dr. Tatjana Puhan

Dr Tatjana Puhan, Deputy CIO at TOBAM, was the special guest in the latest Fireside Chat hosted by Credo Wealth.

Tatjana and Ainsley To (Head of Multi-Asset at Credo) discussed all things diversification, including why it matters, how to measure and maximize it, and ways in which approaches such as passive index investing may not be as diversified as you think.

Please note that any views expressed are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect Credo's views.

Credo publishes the "Summer Crowds" CredoNews

CredoNews #36

Investment Forum 2021

Is Value Investing back in vogue?

Credo Wealth was delighted to be a key speaker at the digital Investment Forum in June 2021. Watch highlights from this presentation here, covering inflation expectations, Value vs Growth and how Credo has positioned its global equity fund in today's markets.

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

When it comes to the world of investing, crowd behaviour is often blamed for inefficiencies such as the formation of bubbles.

In his latest column for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth) discusses how crowd behaviour can also lead to positive outcomes.

June in review

Overall, it was another positive month for global equities as the continued vaccine rollout allowed further easing of COVID restrictions. The S&P 500, Euro STOXX 50 and the FTSE 100 were up 2.3%, 0.7% and 0.4% respectively. Rising inflation continued to be a concern for investors as increased consumer demand, coupled with supply chain disruptions across the world, contributed to rising output prices. Although the US Federal Reserve sees the rise in inflation as transitory, it acknowledged the possibility of tapering bond purchases. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the delay of 'Freedom Day' until July 19th, due to the rise in new coronavirus cases caused by the Delta variant. The yields on UK, US and German 10-year bonds decreased by 8, 13 and 2 basis points respectively. The pound was down 2.7% against the US dollar and up 0.4% against the euro.

Click below for the latest factsheets.

CNBC Africa

CNBC Africa Interview

CredoNews #

Earlier this week, Deon Gouws, Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth, was interviewed on CNBC Africa's Power Lunch program about how foreign investors are interpreting developments surrounding former South African President Jacob Zuma's jail sentencing.

Credo Fireside Chat - Demystifying DeFi and Crypto with Campbell Harvey

Professor Campbell Harvey was the special guest in the latest Fireside Chat hosted by Credo Wealth.

Cam and Ainsley To (Head of Multi-Asset at Credo) discussed topics in his upcoming book "DeFi and the Future of Finance", including an intro to cryptocurrencies, Ethereum & smart contracts, decentralised exchanges & liquidity pools, flashloans, and others.

Please note that any views expressed are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect Credo's views.

We have lift off

Sometimes, when looking for attractive investment ideas, it is easy to get caught up in seeking new and exciting technologies which promise to change the world. Often overlooked are those companies which provide a product or service which are key to life, operate in the background and are...

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

The relative value of the rand is an important consideration from the perspective of a South African investor when it comes to offshore investing.

In his latest column for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth) discusses how people typically respond to currency fluctuations in both directions.

May in review

Global equity markets maintained their upward momentum in May for a fourth month in a row as the progress of the ongoing vaccine rollout around the world allowed many economies to steadily reopen. Most major equity indices made gains over the month, with the S&P 500, Euro STOXX 50 and the FTSE 100 up 0.7%, 2.5% and 1.1% respectively. However, markets were constrained by concerns of rising inflation due to increased consumer demand and rising input costs. In the US, the Federal Reserve acknowledged it may need to consider tapering its bond purchases at some point but advised it believes the recent jump in inflation will prove to be transitory. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's roadmap for lifting lockdown restrictions progressed to the next stage with the reopening of indoor hospitality. The yields on UK and US 10-year bonds decreased by 5 and 3 basis points respectively. The pound was up 2.8% against the US dollar and 1.1% against the euro.

Click below for the latest factsheets.

BizNews Radio

Deon Gouws featured in an Afrikaans podcast

Deon Gouws, Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth, recently featured in an Afrikaans podcast on Biznews Radio, discussing his approach to investing with an emphasis on international diversification - those who understand the language can listen to it via the below button.

Citywire South Africa

Is Value investing back in vogue?

Can one take the risk of being underweight a value strategy, in the face of a normalisation of interest rates? Or even worse, an inflationary environment where the Fed has to aggressively step in. Growth strategies do not react well in inflationary or rising interest rate environments, particularly coming off such high valuations (as they are now). Jarrod Cahn, Credo Global Equity Fund Manager, was featured in Citywire following participation in the recent BCI Global Investment Conference.

Fireside Chat with Simon Kuper

The well-known author and FT columnist Simon Kuper was the special guest in the latest Fireside Chat hosted by Credo Wealth.

Simon chatted to Deon Gouws (Credo's Chief Investment Officer) about a range of topics, including money in football, the role Oxford University has played in shaping British politics and the question of national identity.

Please note that any views expressed are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect Credo's views.

10 years of BIP

This April, we celebrated the 10-year anniversary of the inception of the Best Ideas Portfolio (BIP), a significant landmark in the life of Credo's oldest and largest equity product. We are pleased that, as of the 30th April 2021, the portfolio has returned 12.3% per annum, which exceeds the return of the MSCI World Index over the same period. The practical implication of this rate of return over 10 years, is that...

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

Facebook is a company which divides opinion like few others: whilst many people continue to say that they'd like to leave its various platforms, there are still some 2 billion subscribers around the world who are active on a daily basis.

In his latest column for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth), shares some thoughts about the investment case.

April in review

Global equity markets continued to perform strongly in April supported by the gradual re-opening of many economies around the world and the continued progress in both the UK and the US with their vaccine programmes. Most major equity indices made gains over the month, with the S&P 500, Euro STOXX 50 and the FTSE 100 up 5.3%, 1.9% and 4.1% respectively. In the US, President Joe Biden outlined plans for two further stimulus packages: the $2.3 trillion "American Jobs Plan" and the $1.8 trillion "American Families Plan", as well as extending many tax credits from the original "Rescue Plan". The yield on US 10-year bonds decreased by 11 basis points, while the yield on UK 10-year bonds was flat. The pound was down 0.3% against the US dollar and down 2.2% against the euro.

Click below for the latest factsheets.

Investment Week

Investment Week Q&A

CredoNews #

Jarrod Cahn, lead manager of Credo Global Equity Fund, was one of the speakers at the recent Investment Week Global Equities Market Briefing. In this accompanying Q&A, he explains how Credo's Value based investment style has led to strong returns for investors. He also examines how the portfolio is positioned, the characteristics he looks for in stocks and where he is currently seeing attractive opportunities.

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

Bitcoin has outperformed most other investments over the past few years and last week saw the successful listing of Coinbase, a leading platform for transacting in cryptocurrency.

In his latest column for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth), shares his own limited experience with bitcoin and Coinbase.

An attractive defensive play

The USA is the largest military spender in the world. It thus stands to reason that seven out of the ten largest defence companies in the world are also American. The US Department of Defence's (DoD) decision on how much to spend, is therefore a driving factor for both allies' and foes' military budgets as well as the performance of defence stocks. Since President Biden's election, concerns...

Fireside Chat with Cullen Roche

The latest Fireside Chat hosted by Credo Wealth was a thought-provoking conversation between Deon Gouws and Cullen Roche.

They discussed a wide range of topics, including the role of the US Federal Reserve, the outlook for inflation and its impact on interest rates, Bitcoin, and the myth of passive investing.

Please note that any views expressed are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect Credo's views.

March in review

US and European equity markets maintained their positive momentum in March, supported by the progress made by the UK and US on the vaccine rollout and further US fiscal stimulus. The S&P 500, Euro STOXX 50 and the FTSE 100 were up 4.4%, 7.9% and 4.2% respectively. In the US, President Joe Biden signed a $1.9 trillion "Rescue Plan" into law, which will provide stimulus cheques of $1,400 to most Americans. Brent Crude oil was down 1.3% over the month on the back of both growing concerns over increasing coronavirus cases in Europe and OPEC's failure to reach a deal on oil supply cuts with Russia and Saudi Arabia. The yield on UK and US 10-year bonds increased by 3 and 34 basis points respectively. The pound was down 1.1% against the US dollar and up 1.8% against the euro.

Click below for the latest factsheets.

Towards a low carbon world

In normal times, the oil price is predominantly supply-driven. Changes to the supply status quo, such as the shale oil glut of 2015 and 2016 and the resultant price collapse, were eventually countered by production cuts from OPEC. Meanwhile, demand dynamics tend to be much more stable, related to the steady rise in global GDP, albeit overlaid with some cyclicality related to economic...

Fireside Chat with Alex Edmans

The latest Fireside Chat hosted by Credo Wealth was an insightful conversation between Ainsley To and Alex Edmans.

They discussed the pitfalls of ESG investing, the social responsibility of business, the nuances in interpreting data & research, and many other topics. A must watch for those curious about the ways conventional wisdom is misguided when it comes to how companies serve investors and wider society.

Please note that any views expressed are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect Credo's views.

Credo publishes the "Vaccine Victory" CredoNews

CredoNews #35

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

The best performing share in the world over the past year has been that of electric motor vehicle manufacturer, Tesla.

In his latest column for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth), counts the opportunity cost of having sold out his own speculative position in this company years ago.

MoneyMarketing

Diversifying through pragmatic conviction

In the Offshore Supplement of MoneyMarketing, Jarrod Cahn shares some valuable insights on how the Credo Global Equity fund is positioned. A pragmatic approach to investing with conviction.

February in review

February was largely a positive month for global equity markets with the S&P 500, Euro STOXX 50 and the FTSE 100 up 2.8%, 4.6% and 1.6% respectively. Markets responded well to the continued decrease in new coronavirus cases and the progress made by the UK and US with their vaccine programmes. In the US, the House of Representatives approved a $1.9 trillion "Rescue Plan", the first of at least two spending bills by the Biden administration, and is expected to be passed by Congress in March. Brent Crude oil was up 17.5% as the continued vaccine roll-out supported the outlook for a strong recovery in global growth. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his roadmap for the gradual re-opening of the economy, starting with schools on 8 March. In the fixed income market, the yields on UK, US and German 10-year bonds increased by 49, 34 and 26 basis points respectively. The pound was up 1.6% against the US dollar and 2.2% against the euro.

Click below for the latest factsheets.

Moneyweb

Covid-19, a personal account

Covid-19 has been making headlines for over a year now. In this piece, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth) shares his personal experience of the illness

The curious case of Jack Ma

In October 2020, days before the planned IPO of Ant Financial which is set to be the biggest in history, Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and controlling shareholder of Ant, gave a speech at the Bund Summit in Shanghai. Despite the presence of the Vice President of the People's Bank of China, Ma took aim at China's financial system, or lack thereof, as he determined. He also...

Investment Week

Credo Dynamic featured in Investment Week

Ben Newton, Co-Manager of the Credo Dynamic Fund, recently spoke to Investment Week about the opportunities available in the UK property sector. He examines the emerging trends and challenges and illustrates how selective exposure has proved rewarding for investors in the fund.

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

Stock markets around the world are trading near all-time highs and there's growing talk of a bubble in financial assets... is a correction or a crash imminent?

In his latest column for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth), makes the point that even experts find it difficult to time the end of a bull market.

January in review

After a bright start to the year, most US and European equity markets performed poorly in January, with the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and Euro STOXX 50 down 1.0%, 0.8% and 1.8% respectively. Optimism relating to the vaccine rollout waned as new coronavirus strains were discovered and concerns over the ongoing economic impact of continued restrictions took hold. In the US, the Democrats won control of the Senate, giving them control over both houses of Congress. President Biden's new administration announced their plans for a new USD 1.9 trillion stimulus package, the 'American Rescue Plan'. Brent Crude oil was up 6.3% over the month, as Saudi Arabia agreed to cut its oil production as the coronavirus forced economies back into further lockdowns. The yields on UK, US and German 10-year bonds increased by 13, 15, 5 basis points respectively. The pound was up 0.3% against the US dollar and 0.9% against the euro.

Click below for the latest factsheets.

BCI

Back to the future

Over the past few months, we, alongside many others, have tried to imagine what the world will look like after the successful rollout of a vaccination programme. There are inevitably some changes that we have made to our lifestyles which will stay, but also many which we will all be pleased to get rid of. There will be some activities that we gladly and quickly return to and others where...

Financial Mail

View from the Thames

At the beginning of a new year, strategists typically share their forecasts about the twelve months ahead.

In his eleventh guest column for leading South African publication Financial Mail, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth), illustrates how most forecasts boil down to a waste of time.

MoneyMarketing

Profiling Credo's superior platform functionality

Louise Usher profiles some of the key features of the Credo platform in January's edition of Money Marketing. The key message being the value that the platform provides across the spectrum from trading; reporting and access to whole of market investment instruments.

December in review

Global equity markets continued to climb through December, prompted by the news of the Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccines being approved. All the major equity indices made gains over the month, with the FTSE 100, S&P 500 and the Euro STOXX 50 all up 3.3%, 3.8% and 1.8% respectively. In the US, the markets responded positively to the election result, but attention has now turned to the upcoming Senate runoff elections in Georgia, which will decide whether the Democrats or Republicans control the Senate. Gold was up 6.4% over the month, bolstered by the weakening US Dollar and Brent crude oil prices increased 8% as OPEC and Russia reached a deal to modestly increase oil production. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that a Brexit deal had finally been agreed with the European Union. As a result, the pound was up 2.6% against the US dollar and 0.13% against the euro. Yields on UK 10-year bonds decreased by 11 basis points whilst yields on US 10-year bonds increased by 7 basis points.

Click below for the latest factsheets.

Season's Greetings