Getting food from the farm to our plates is complicated but agribusinesses try to simplify the process. Bunge's operations include agricultural commodity trading, storage, transportation, processing, packaging and distribution. These are all capital intensive and difficult to break into. This doesn't mean there aren't market pressures for those who are already in it to perform on behalf of shareholders. However, it does mean that...
November saw a halt to October's global equity market declines, despite geopolitical risks remaining. US midterm election results have seen the Democrats gaining control of the House and the Republicans increasing control of the Senate. The S&P 500 returned 2.0% over the period. In Europe, progress was made with regards to Brexit, where a withdrawal agreement will now be submitted to the UK Parliament. With resistance expected, uncertainty remains, and the pound was mostly unchanged against the euro, while the FTSE 100 was down 1.6%. Elsewhere in Europe, third quarter GDP results showed a contraction in German and Italian production, while the Euro STOXX 50 was down 0.7%. Oil prices also made significant declines, with Brent Crude down 20.9%. This decline can be attributed to increases in supply from the US and Saudi Arabia, as well as the introduction of exemptions on Iran sanctions. The yield on US and UK 10-year bonds decreased 16 and 7 basis points respectively, as investors' concerns mounted over global economic growth prospects.
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Uncertainty surrounding the future of Brexit has been dominating news headlines in the UK for some time now. On Tuesday this week, Credo's Chief Investment Officer, Deon Gouws, was asked for his views in this regard in an interview with CNBC Africa.
Last week, Jarrod Cahn, portfolio manager of the Credo Global Equity Fund, took part in a "share shoot-out" on the SA radio program Classic Business with host Michael Avery and participants from other investment firms. The podcast can be listened to by clicking on the above player.
In an article in Citywire Wealth Manager this month, Jarrod Cahn, Director at Credo Wealth and Manager of the Credo Global Equity Fund, explains why he is a big fan of the 1990s darling, Microsoft, and has held the stock for more than seven years.
Last weekend, the European Union signed off on a Brexit deal which is being met with strong resistance from a large number of members of the UK parliament. Credo's Chief Investment Officer Deon Gouws was asked for his views in this regard in an interview with eNCA this week.
Making money is a balance of four things. Identifying a group of people with money, finding a problem that needs solving, being able to solve that problem, and being paid for it because the people with money choose you. That problem solving exists within the barriers of supply and demand. What constraints are there that stop others from doing the same thing? Verizon is an American telecommunication company that...
Last weekend, the European Union signed off on a Brexit deal which is being met with strong resistance from a large number of members of the UK parliament. Credo's Chief Investment Officer Deon Gouws was asked for his views in this regard in an interview with eNCA this week.
October was not a good month for investors as global equities took a beating amid mounting fears over a combination of factors, including rising US interest rates, Italy's fiscal struggle with the Eurozone, Saudi tensions and the continued trade war rhetoric. The S&P 500, the Euro STOXX 50 and the FTSE 100 were all down 6.8%, 5.8% and 4.8% respectively. Despite the weak equity performance, economic fundamentals and data coming out of the US remain strong. October also saw the UK Chancellor, Philip Hammond, deliver the annual Budget which had few surprises, although did declare that 10 years of austerity is coming to an end. Pound sterling was down 2.1% against the US dollar and up 0.5% against the euro. Oil prices decreased significantly over the month, with Brent crude oil down 8.6%, driven by the sale of risky assets, a deteriorating global economic outlook and increases in supply. The yield on Italian 10-year bonds increased by 28 basis points as bond markets became concerned over the local fiscal situation. UK 10-year bonds ended the period with a yield of 1.44%, while the US 10-year bonds ended on 3.14%.
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Credo took part in the recent Investment Week Funds to Watch event, which was held in London. The Credo Global Equity Fund was highlighted and the fund's manager, Jarrod Cahn, gave a presentation explaining how the fund is invested and why the time could be right for Value as an investment style.
Jarrod Cahn, Director at Credo and Global Equity Fund manager, highlights how the social network is at its cheapest valuation since listing in 2012.
From Monday 12 November 2018, all subscriptions will be automated to be delivered to your inbox as part of an overnight process on the scheduled date. The option to choose the delivery time has been removed.
Cigna is an American managed health care company. It offers medical, dental, disability, life and accident insurance. Express Scripts is a pharmacy benefits management (PBM) organisation. PBMs maintain lists of approved medicines, using their bulk to negotiate discounts with drug manufacturers. They also process and pay claims for reimbursement. In March 2018, it was announced that Cigna would buy Express Scripts. The deal was approved in August, by the shareholders of both companies. As active, equity managers, there are various points of uncertainty which we can take advantage of. The key isn't to predict the future. The key is...
South Africas' new Finance Minister, Tito Mboweni, presented his first Medium Term Budget Policy Statement to parliament recently. On the eve of this, Deon Gouws (Chief Investment Officer at Credo Wealth) was asked for his thoughts on CNBC Africa.
Rupert Silver, Credo Director and Dynamic Fund Manager, was recently featured by financial portal Investment Week. He highlights investors must be wary of the risks on the horizon and lists three of the best off-the-radar IPOs to look out for as worthy additions to portfolios.
The recent piece by Credo CIO, Deon Gouws, on the turbulence in global markets has also been published (in slightly amended form) on leading South African financial news site Moneyweb.
In an article in Citywire Wealth Manager this month, Jarrod Cahn, Director at Credo Wealth and Manager of the Credo Global Equity Fund, explains how he knew it was time to sell Credo's Whitbread stake.
Global equity markets performed reasonably in September, shrugging off the continued US-China trade rhetoric. The S&P 500 and the Shenzhen CSI 300 were up 0.6% and 3.2% respectively. Brent crude oil prices increased 7.3% over the month as OPEC and non-OPEC members declared that they have no intention of increasing oil production and as US sanctions on Iran draw closer. In the UK, the FTSE 100 returned 1.1% while pound sterling, a perceived barometer of the progress made on the Brexit negotiations, increased 0.5% against both the US dollar and the euro. This was despite Theresa May warning that the UK would be willing to walk away without a deal and the IMF warning of the potential implications of a no-deal Brexit. The yield on UK 10-year bonds increased by 0.15% and the US 10-year yield increased 0.20%.
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This has been a turbulent week in equity markets, with global indices now trading some 7% (or more, in certain cases) below their recent highs. Credo's Chief Investment Officer, Deon Gouws, offers some perspective.
As fundamental investors, the shares we buy are fractional ownership in a real underlying business. Businesses are dynamic and those who run them are constantly re-evaluating their structure, to account for changing conditions. We don't have a crystal ball. We don't know exactly what management will do. We don't know what competitors will do. There is a lot we don't know. When we buy a stock, we try look through all this noise at what we think the underlying intrinsic value is. That isn't a clear number. It is based on our research and analysis of a wide range of possible future impacts and outcomes. When you have a long-term investment horizon, and confidence in real fundamentals underlying the decisions you make...
August commenced as expected, with the second UK interest rate hike in a decade as the Bank of England increased the base rate to 0.75%. Most equity markets retreated during the month as increased uncertainty and volatility in emerging markets, most notably in Argentina and Turkey, had global reverberations: the FTSE 100, Euro STOXX 50 and Hang Seng were all down 3.3%, 3.7% and 2.1% respectively. US equity markets were an exception, as particularly strong US macroeconomic data, including a stronger than expected GDP figure of 4.2%, saw the S&P 500 increase 3.3% and the NASDAQ increase 5.9%. US economic outperformance spurred the rise in the dollar, leading to a 1.3% rise against sterling and a 0.8% rise against the euro. Investors seemed nervous over the new Italian government's budget plans, causing the yield on 10-year Italian bonds to rise 52 basis points over the month. Elsewhere in the bond markets, UK 10-year yields finished the period on 1.4% and US 10-year yields on 2.9%.
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Jarrod Cahn, Director at Credo, was featured in the latest Investment Week's Bull & Bear. He explains we should stay patient and true to our investment style, screening and buying stocks that look intrinsically cheap, either against historic valuation or the overall market.
Credo has improved the report shortcuts from the Portfolio and Accounts lists accessed from a mouse right button click.
This month marks the first anniversary of the launch of the Credo Dynamic Fund. We are taking this opportunity to provide investors with a detailed update to accompany the monthly factsheet.
Credo has improved the way MyCredo can be accessed.
In a world where everything becomes increasingly transparent, perfectly replicable, and transaction costs plummet... the magic of storytelling becomes key. Waves of creative destruction have visited many industries as they adjust to new technologies touching old barriers to entry. It becomes increasingly difficult to just do what a business did before and feel secure if the only secret to your success is your walls. What is more difficult to replace is...
July saw global equity markets make positive ground in a month where Trump made diplomatic efforts around Europe, meeting with the UK's Theresa May, Russia's Vladimir Putin and the EU's Jean-Claude Junker. Strong corporate earnings results saw the S&P 500, the Euro STOXX 50 and the FTSE 100 all up 3.7%, 4.0% and 1.5% respectively. July also saw a reshuffle of the UK Cabinet with both Boris Johnson and David Davies resigning following the Chequers Agreement, which was met with widespread criticism for being too 'soft' in terms of EU relations post-Brexit. Against this backdrop, pound sterling was down 0.6% against the US dollar and down 0.7% against the euro. Strong US economic data pushed up 10-year yields. US treasuries ended the period on 3.0%, while UK gilts and German bunds ended on 1.3% and 0.4% respectively. As the US-China trade war heated up, commodity markets took a hit, with copper prices down 4.4% and Brent crude oil down 5.7%.
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In a world where everything becomes increasingly transparent, perfectly replicable, and transaction costs plummet... the magic of storytelling becomes key. Waves of creative destruction have visited many industries as they adjust to new technologies touching old barriers to entry. It becomes increasingly difficult to just do what a business did before and feel secure if the only secret to your success is your walls. What is more difficult to replace is...
Have you properly assessed your custodian risk? Many investors take for granted that their investments are safe and secure. This is something Credo takes very seriously and we have consistently, over the past 20 years, focused on providing our clients with a safe, robust and secure environment in which to hold their assets.
June saw global developed equites remain relatively flat, with continued geopolitical tension surrounding US trade war rhetoric. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% whilst the Euro STOXX 50 and FTSE 100 both fell 0.2%. This was against the backdrop of a continued rise in the US dollar, with pound sterling and euro finishing the month at 1.32 and 1.17 against the greenback respectively. In fixed income, the 10-year yields for US treasuries, UK gilts and German bunds ended the period on 2.9%, 1.3% and 0.3% respectively. Brent Crude rose to $78 despite OPEC agreeing to increase production, with the commodity resuming its upward trend that began in mid-2017.
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During the early 2000s, we saw substantial growth of online gambling across the globe. In 2006, it all came crashing down in the US when congress passed the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). The UIGEA "prohibits gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law". US based operators were forced to close down virtually overnight and illegal offshore operators struggled with shrinking liquidity imposed by the banking system. This shifted the attention of online gaming operators back to Europe, Australia and the UK, where both gaming and sports betting are...
On 4 June, we kicked off our sixth annual international roadshow in South Africa. This year's conference was particularly special in that we are celebrating our 20 year anniversary. Over 400 guests across the five cities we visited heard presentations by Roy Ettlinger (CEO), Alan Noik (Managing Director), Ainsley To (Research Analyst), Jarrod Cahn (Director), SJ du Preez (Managing Director - SA) and Deon Gouws (CIO). Topics included 'The Illusion of Knowledge: History, Data & Overconfidence', 'A Fistful of Dollars' and 'Much ado about Nothing'. The Roadshow was a massive success and we look forward to holding the event once again next year.
May saw Continental European equites fall, led by political uncertainty in Italy. Initial fears of a prolonged political stalemate and fresh elections eventually subsided with Giuseppe Conte being approved as prime minister. Despite this, Italy's stock market index, the FTSE MIB, fell 8.0% over the course of the month while the Euro STOXX 50 fell 2.3%. Elsewhere, the FTSE 100 rose 2.8% as the pound sterling weakened 3.4% against the US dollar, finishing the month at 1.33 USD/GBP. In the US, Trump's trade war moved west providing respite for China, with allies including the EU, Canada and Mexico targeted for steel and aluminium tariffs instead. The S&P 500 finished 2.4% higher, the Shenzhen CSI 100 rose 1.5%, the Mexican Bolsa fell 7.3% and Canada's stock exchange benchmark, the S&P/TSX Composite index, rose 3.1%. In fixed income, the 10-year yields for US treasuries, UK gilts and German bunds ended the period on 2.9%, 1.2% and 0.3% respectively.
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Kathryn Linde, Relationship Manager at Credo, explains why it made sense to use Financial Express (FE) Global Funds Registration (GFR) for the registration in South Africa of three new UCITS funds under Credo ICAV (Irish Collective Asset Management Vehicle).
Never be a forced buyer. Never be a forced seller. Patience, the ability to walk away, and the behavioural intelligence of learning to pick your battles, is rewarded over the long term. Commodities are the simplest, and clearest, example of the dance of supply and demand. Commodities like oil don't change. The businesses around them do, as they respond to the needs of people and other businesses. Price is not an indication of permanent intrinsic value. Price is a clearing mechanism. The more supply there is of something, without more demand, the lower the price will be. The more demand there is, without more supply, the higher the price will be. If you are able to...
April was a positive month for major developed market indices, with some recovering significantly from losses captured during the first quarter. The UK's first-quarter GDP estimate came in lower than expected at 0.1%, and subsequent moves in interest rate futures implied lower expectations for rates. The country's currency fell to 1.38 sterling per US dollar and the FTSE 100 finished the period up 6.8%. Across the pond, President Trump's focus on denuclearisation has thrown uncertainty on the future of the Iran nuclear deal, with his approach conflicting with those of his European counterparts. The S&P 500 made a muted gain of 0.4%, while the Euro STOXX 50 rose 6.0%. In fixed income, the 10-year yields for US treasuries, UK gilts and German bunds ended the period on 3.0%, 1.4% and 0.6% respectively, against a backdrop of continued tightening by the Federal Reserve.
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At university we learn that stock markets are efficient pricing mechanisms. That being the case, investors should appropriately value sprawling conglomerates on the basis of the sum of their individual businesses (often disparate). There should be little upside from splitting up or merging businesses. In the real world, there are measurable benefits to merging businesses i.e. in pounds and pence on projected financial statements. These benefits, called 'synergies', typically...
Credo Wealth is pleased to announce that the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (formerly the Financial Services Board) of South Africa has approved our three unit trusts in terms of Section 65 of CISCA, 2002. In addition to the FSCA approval, the Credo funds are also UCITS compliant.
March saw equities extend February's decline, resulting in most indices posting negative returns for the quarter. In the US, the planned introduction of tariffs targeted at Chinese trade provoked a retaliation, with China suggesting it will implement similar tariffs on primarily US imported goods. The S&P 500 finished the month 2.5% lower, while the Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 3.1%. Elsewhere, the UK made a number of concessions in coming to a 21-month transition deal with the EU. This included an agreement requiring Northern Ireland to comply with EU regulations in absence of a better alternative. Despite this, the FTSE 100 declined 2.0% while the EURO STOXX 50 fell 2.1%. In fixed income, the 10-year yields for US treasuries, UK gilts and German bunds ended the period on 2.7%, 1.4% and 0.5% respectively.
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This new version includes functional enhancements for users, implementation of a data warehouse that will make future technology changes faster and more.
In this special edition of the Credo Equity Spotlight, Deon Gouws, CIO at Credo, discusses Credo's Investment Philosophy, focusing on our value-based approach. He further discusses why Value works over the longer term, whilst highlighting the challenges value investors have had over the last few years, particularly against competing investment styles, like Momentum and Growth. In the second half of the Spotlight, Jarrod Cahn, Director at Credo, drills down on two stocks Credo presently owns in its portfolios, highlighting some of the characteristics we look for in value stocks, and commenting on them.
The offshore custody solution allows clients access to global multi-asset class investments and multi-currency trading to a segregated custody service, all available via Credo's single integrated platform.
February saw global equity indices tumble, as investor fear (as measured by the VIX index) hit its highest level since China's stock market crash in August 2015. In the US, the S&P 500 fell 3.7%. This during a month where new Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell attended his first congressional hearings. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 finished 3.4% down, while the Euro STOXX 50 fell 4.6%. In Asia, the Shenzhen CSI 300 was down 5.9% as President Xi moved to scrap term limits, opening up the possibility he may rule indefinitely. In fixed income, the major 10-year sovereign yields remained relatively unchanged as US treasuries, UK gilts and German bunds finished 2.9%, 1.5% and 0.7% respectively.
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In an article in Citywire Wealth Manager this month, Ben Newton an Investment Manager at Credo, notes the political and valuation risks that are currently forefront of our clients concerns.
The much awaited announcement of incoming South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's first cabinet was made on Monday night. CNBC Africa interviewed Credo CIO Deon Gouws in this regard.
One of the oldest and toughest road running events on the South African race calendar took place on Sunday the 18th of February 2018: the 41st running of the Pirates Half Marathon, proudly sponsored for the third consecutive year by Credo Wealth. The event attracted a record field of some 4,200 runners and was a tremendous success all round.
As long-term investors looking at the fundamentals of a company, we analyse what the intrinsic value of a business is. This is not a single number, but a range of scenarios. Any models created are questions rather than answers. A key focus is getting an idea of what 'normal' earnings are. Two competing issues in working out 'normal', are the dynamism of the market and mean-reversion. History is full of examples of companies that were doing very well, and then they weren't. Before cars, makers of...
January saw mixed returns across global equity markets. In the US, the S&P 500 had a strong month as it rose 5.7%. This was during a month where Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen held her final meeting before she hands over to successor Jerome Powell in early February. In contrast, the broad index for UK stocks - the FTSE All Share - fell 1.9% as pound sterling strengthened against all major trading partners, rising 5.0% relative to the US dollar and 1.5% relative to the euro. Elsewhere in Europe, the Euro STOXX 50 rose 3.1%. In fixed income, following a year that saw a significant flattening of the US yield curve, 2018 began with a slight steepening and increase in level as rates across the maturity spectrum rose. Focusing on 10-year rates, US Treasuries finished the month at 2.7%, while UK Gilts and German Bunds rose to 1.5% and 0.7% respectively.
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Want to see detailed information regarding an order on the "Blotter"? MyCredo allows you to check the order details of your trade.
As Equity Investors, we are a step away from where decisions are made and implemented. Shareholders own a slice of the business, but the business is run on our behalf. Ideally, we get a great management team, who build up a track record of reacting well to whatever complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity gets thrown their way. In that way, when evaluating a business, we are able to look at what 'normal earnings' are. Then when there are challenging periods, and short-term investors make their decisions based on the next few quarters, buying opportunities present themselves. Merlin Entertainments is the second largest...
2017 drew to a close with mixed returns across equity regions. December saw a 1.1% rise in the S&P 500, in a month where President Trump signed US tax reforms into law. In contrast, markets across continental Europe were down over the period, with the CAC 40 and DAX falling -0.9% and -0.8% respectively. UK equities saw the largest rise, with the FTSE 100 increasing 5.0%, despite the government losing a vote that required any Brexit deal to be approved through a full parliamentary vote. Having flirted with the 2% level earlier in the late summer, US 10 year bond yields ended the year where they began, at 2.4%. This masked a continued flattening of the US yield curve, as 2 year interest rates reached 1.9%, a significant rise from their 1.2% level in January.
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